Our Snow Day Prediction Methodology
How we calculate the likelihood of a snow day with industry-leading accuracy
Snow Day Chance uses a combination of weather data, historical patterns, and machine learning to predict the likelihood of school closures with up to 87% accuracy. Our system analyzes multiple factors that influence school closure decisions.
Weather Data Collection
We collect real-time data from multiple weather services including NOAA, the National Weather Service, and local weather stations. This gives us accurate forecasts for snowfall, ice accumulation, temperature, and wind conditions.
Historical Data Analysis
We've compiled over 15 years of historical school closure data across thousands of districts. This helps us understand how different regions and school systems respond to various weather conditions.
Key Factors Our Snow Day Predictor Analyzes
Machine Learning Model
Our core prediction engine uses a sophisticated machine learning model trained on thousands of historical snow days. The model weighs multiple factors differently based on your specific location and school district's history.
The Snow Day Chance Calculation Process
- Data Collection: We gather weather forecasts and current conditions for your location.
- District Analysis: We identify your school district's historical closure patterns.
- Risk Assessment: Our algorithm calculates the impact of predicted weather on school operations.
- Probability Calculation: We determine the likelihood of closure based on all factors.
- Continuous Updates: Predictions are refreshed every 15 minutes as new data becomes available.
Accuracy and Improvement
Our model is continuously refined through a feedback loop that incorporates actual closure decisions. After each winter season, we analyze our performance and make adjustments to improve accuracy.
Expert Team
Our team includes meteorologists, data scientists, and former school administrators who understand both the science of weather prediction and the practical considerations of school closure decisions.
Transparent Methodology
We're open about how our predictions work. While our algorithm is sophisticated, we believe in explaining the factors that influence our predictions so you can understand the results.
A Note on Uncertainty
Weather prediction and school closure decisions involve inherent uncertainty. Our predictions represent the most likely outcome based on available data, but the final decision always rests with school administrators who may consider factors beyond our model's scope.